Casas Adobes, Arizona 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

867
FXUS65 KTWC 212012
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
112 PM MST Sat Dec 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Dry weather with above normal temperatures will persist
through early next week. Near record high temperatures will be
possible today and tomorrow. A passing weather disturbance will
then cool afternoon temperatures begining Christmas Day of next
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The ridge that has been in place over the past few
days has begun to flatten out as a shortwave moves through well to
the north. However surface temperatures don`t respond until early
next week. Record highs will be possible both today and Sunday.
Monday into Tuesday temperatures "cool" 2-3 degrees compared to
over the weekend. After Tuesday a couple troughs will move through
the region. The first moves through Christmas day and will bring
slightly elevated winds and a chance for precipitation (20-30
percent) in the White Mountains. The core of the low passes
through southern Utah and the Four Corners, which keeps precip
chances to the north. The second trough moves through late
Thursday into Friday. There is much greater uncertainty with this
second trough with respect to its speed and depth. Precip chances
are again confined to the White Mountains and generally below 25
percent. Both systems will bring temperatures down compared to the
past few days, but still be 5-9 degrees above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 23/00Z.
SKC first half of valid pd, then FEW-SCT thin cirrus AOA 20k ft
moving thru during second half of valid pd. SFC winds mostly
W/NW this afternoon less than 10 kts. Light terrain driven SFC
winds after 22/02z becoming W/NW again Sunday afternoon. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions with above normal temperatures
through the first half of next week. A passing disturbance the
middle of next week will bring cooler temperatures and a chance of
showers to the White Mountains Christmas Day and Friday. Minimum
relative humidity values 10 to 15 percent in the valleys into the
middle of next week, with 15 to 25 percent expected in the higher
terrain. 20-foot winds will mainly be less than 15 mph through
the next week.

&&

.CLIMATE...Record or near record high temperatures next 3 days

DATE                         Dec 21           Dec 22           Dec 23
                          FCST RCD/YR      FCST RCD/YR      FCST RCD/YR
TUCSON INTL AIRPORT        81  80/1917      80  82/1917      78  80/2021
AJO                        80  80/1981      79  80/2016      78  81/2005
KITT PEAK                  67  67/2003      65  64/1962      61  65/2005
ORGAN PIPE CACTUS          81  81/1969      80  82/1955      79  82/1950
PICACHO PEAK               75  79/2005      73  79/2005      72  78/2021
SAFFORD AG STATION         72  71/1979      73  73/2021      73  72/2005
SIERRA VISTA FD            75  77/1969      77  75/2000      73  75/1917
TOMBSTONE                  75  75/1955      76  81/1950      73  77/1955
WILLCOX                    71  73/2003      73  72/1955      71  73/2021

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Hardin

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson