Casas Adobes, Arizona 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

166
FXUS65 KTWC 302204
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
304 PM MST Sun Mar 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Dry weather with near to slightly above normal temperatures
through Tuesday. A series of dry weather systems will bring breezy
west to southwest winds Tuesday, with localized critical fire
weather conditions and blowing dust south and east of Tucson. A
weather system will bring cooler temperatures midweek onward and
low precipitation chances late in the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...High cirrus and the current breezy afternoon winds
are thanks to the dry shortwave that is passing to the north of
the area. So far the highest gusts has been along the Arizona/New
Mexico border along I-10. So far, there has been a bit of blowing
dust, but no widespread decreases in visibility thus far.

After this shortwave passes, we get into a zonal flow then
longwave trough pattern. The next change comes Tuesday when a low
pressure system drops into the area from the Pacific Northwest.
The jet streak and associated vorticity continues to look like
stronger west winds of 20-35 mph with gusts up to 45 mph
(strongest winds along the Arizona/New Mexico border) Tuesday
afternoon and evening. This system looks unimpressive in the
precipitation front with only a 10-15% chance in the White
mounatins. With the combination of the low RHs, increased winds,
and high fire danger, a Fire Weather Watch has been issued for
Tuesday afternoon and evening. With the increased winds, blowing
dust is possible especially in the problem areas like I-10 near
the Willcox Playa and I-10 near Picacho Peak.

The longwave trough continues to stick around the area through
Thursday then a shortwave trough drops lower Friday into Saturday.
The confidence in exact timing and depth of these systems are
still low, but the main impacts that can be cooler morning lows
in the valleys of Cochise County on Wednesday and Thursday
mornings and increased afternoon wind and slight chances (20-30%)
for precipitation Friday and Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 01/00Z.
SCT to occasionally BKN 12-20k ft AGL through the forecast
period. Sfc westerly winds at 10-20 kts with gusts 25-30 kts
(highest gusts near KDUG) thru 31/03Z, then again from 31/21Z thru
the end of the period. Otherwise sfc winds follow diurnal trends
and remain under 10 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Warm afternoon temperatures across Southeast
Arizona through Tuesday, generally around to slightly warmer than
normal. Afternoon relative humidity values in the single digits
to lower teens. A round of gusty west winds 20-35 mph with gusts
up to 45 mph is expected Tuesday afternoon and evening (strongest
winds along the Arizona/New Mexico border), with elevated areas
of critical fire weather conditions possible. A Fire Weather
Watch has been issued for the valleys Tucson eastward from 1 PM to
8 PM Tuesday. Thereafter, breezy conditions each day with a
slight chance of light showers late in the upcoming week.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
evening for AZZ150>152.

&&

$$

Tetrault

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